Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Baird Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.9% (10 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 62.3%–98.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+45.0 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+34.2 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 56.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+18.4 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 72.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+18.5 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 72.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClickFuelclickfuel.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Venitivenitimedical.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Palyon Medicalpalyonmedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Coalfirecoalfire.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Snagajobsnagajob.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Molecular Imagingmolecularimaging.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Austin Logistics Incorporatedalisolutions.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| GenomeDx Biosciencesgenomedx.com | 2012 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Wuhan Kindstar Diagnosticskindstarglobal.com | 2011 | No | 48 | — |
| PathCentralpathcentral.net | 2010 | Yes | 46 | — |
| High Street Partnershsp.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |