Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Baker Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-27.8 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-38.1 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-50.5 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 67.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-57.8 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 74.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.6 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ParStreamparstream.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Visioneered Image Systems | 2006 | No | 89 | — |
| Offermaticaoffermatica.com | 2005 | No | 70 | — |
| Permabit Technology Corporationpermabit.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| RiverOneriverone.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| Verified Identity Passverifiedidpass.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |