Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Balderton Capital vs Kairos
34th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (25 of 50 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.6%–63.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 40th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.9 pp
50.0% on 50 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
-4.7 pp
50.0% on 48 deals vs 54.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.0 pp
50.0% on 48 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.1 pp
50.0% on 46 deals vs 65.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 48 of 50 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
48
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.3% (4 of 43). 95% Wilson interval 3.7%–21.6%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.8 pp
9.3% on 43 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
50 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wongawonga.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Daylifedaylife.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Pageflakespageflakes.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| MANGLAM EDUCATIONmanglameducation.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| InnerWorkingsinnerworkings.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| TouchLocaltouchlocal.com | 2004 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Livebookings Holdings Ltd.livebookings.net | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Zubkazubka.com | 2007 | No | 86 | — |
| TVtriptvtrip.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| RawFlowrawflow.com | 2007 | No | 85 | — |
| Audium Semiconductoraudiumsemi.co.uk | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| Adjugadjug.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Tabulatabula.de | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Azuroazuro.com | 2006 | No | 81 | — |
| betNOWbetnow.co.uk | 2008 | No | 79 | — |
| DisplayLinkdisplaylink.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Metaversummetaversum.com | 2008 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Tictailtictail.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Contentfulcontentful.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| ACHICAachica.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Ezoicezoic.com | 2013 | No | 69 | — |
| NewBaynewbay.com | 2004 | No | 67 | — |
| 7digitalabout.7digital.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Oncimmuneoncimmune.com | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| Nlyte Softwarenlyte.com | 2008 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Intune Networksintunenetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Friend.lyfriend.ly | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Rebtelrebtel.com | 2006 | No | 59 | — |
| Saatchi Onlinesaatchionline.com | 2010 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Betfairbetfair.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Figleaves.comfigleaves.com | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| Kobaltkobaltmusic.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| The Hut Groupthehutgroup.com | 2010 | No | 44 | — |
| 3D Hubs3dhubs.com | 2013 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Memrisememrise.com | 2010 | Yes | 42 | — |
| My-wardrobe.commy-wardrobe.com | 2010 | No | 38 | — |
| Circlecirclepartnership.co.uk | 2008 | Yes | 37 | — |
| WorldStoresworldstores.co.uk | 2009 | Yes | 33 | — |
| eWiseewise.com | 2010 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Realtime Technologyrtt.ag | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| Socowavesocowave.com | 2010 | No | 23 | — |
| MBA Polymersmbapolymers.com | 2007 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Scytlscytl.com | 2010 | No | 14 | — |
| InterResolveinterresolve.co.uk | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| WeeWorldweeworld.com | 2005 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Codemasterscodemasters.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Justylejustyle.org | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| Big Fishbigfishgames.com | 2008 | No | 2 | — |
| Openetopenet.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Globoforcegloboforce.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| urturnurturn.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |