Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Baseline Ventures vs Kairos
86th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.2% (30 of 41 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 58.1%–84.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 80th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.2 pp
73.2% on 41 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+16.5 pp
73.2% on 41 deals vs 56.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.8 pp
73.2% on 41 deals vs 72.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.3 pp
73.2% on 41 deals vs 68.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
40
Mean model percentile
79
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 53.3% (16 of 30). 95% Wilson interval 36.1%–69.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+41.1 pp
53.3% on 30 deals vs 12.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
41 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoTweetcotweet.com | 2009 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Blekkoblekko.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Expensifyuse.expensify.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| UserVoiceuservoice.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Anchor Intelligenceanchorintelligence.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| DocVersedocverse.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| 2010 | Yes | 96 | — | |
| SoFisofi.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| TastemakerXtastemakerx.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Iron.ioiron.io | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| nWaynway.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Piqorapiqora.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| ObjectLabsmongolab.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Mango Healthmangohealth.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| StackMobstackmob.com | 2011 | No | 91 | — |
| GoInstantgoinstant.com | 2011 | No | 89 | — |
| Datalotdatalot.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Highfivehighfive.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Metaresolvermetaresolver.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Threadflipthreadflip.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Giftlygiftly.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Good Eggsgoodeggs.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Fraudwall Technologiesfraudwall.net | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Pronounpronoun.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Rivet & Swayrivetandsway.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Clarityclarity.fm | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Pantheonjoinpantheon.io | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Reverb Technologieshelloreverb.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Stax Networksstax.net | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| BookFreshbookfresh.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Rupturerupture.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Pocketheypocket.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| SnapLayoutbestfacebookstatus.net | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| AltSchoolaltschool.com | 2013 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Seesawseesaw.co | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Haute Securehautesecure.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Cake Financialcakefinancial.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Verslyversly.com | 2010 | No | 42 | — |
| TRUSTetruste.com | 2008 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Rivet Games | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Cluster Labscluster.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Somadrinksoma.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |