Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BASF Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-12.0 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-20.6 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 54.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-35.9 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-33.8 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 67.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.6 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPOrpo.biz | 2006 | No | 85 | — |
| Ultracellultracell-llc.com | 2009 | No | 85 | — |
| Heliatekheliatek.com | 2009 | No | 84 | — |
| Solidia Technologiessolidiatech.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| baseclickbaseclick.eu | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Cavis microcapscavis-microcaps.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Luca Technologieslucatechnologies.com | 2006 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Sciona | 2006 | Yes | 22 | — |
| NanoMas Technologiesnanomastech.com | 2008 | No | 17 | — |