Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Battelle Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.9 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
-6.0 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.2 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.9 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 63.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.1% (1 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 1.6%–37.7%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.1 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldisaldiscorp.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| CDI Biosciencecdibiotech.com | 2007 | No | 80 | — |
| Sypherlinksypherlink.com | 2005 | Yes | 71 | — |
| BioNano Genomicsbionanogenomics.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Hepregenhepregen.com | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Rajant Corporationrajant.com | 2006 | No | 51 | — |
| Multispectral Imaging | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| BioVigilant Systemsbiovigilant.com | 2006 | No | 42 | — |
| NellOne Therapeuticsnell-one.com | 2008 | No | 29 | — |
| RemoteRealityremotereality.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Hi-G-Tekhigtek.com | 2006 | Yes | 19 | — |