Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Battery Ventures vs Kairos
98th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.9% (60 of 79 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 65.5%–84.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 83rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.0 pp
75.9% on 79 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+17.9 pp
75.0% on 76 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.1 pp
75.0% on 76 deals vs 71.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.7 pp
74.0% on 73 deals vs 70.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 76 of 79 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
73
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 35.2% (19 of 54). 95% Wilson interval 23.8%–48.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.7 pp
35.2% on 54 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
79 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gogobotgogobot.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Continuuitycontinuuity.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| SafetyWebsafetyweb.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| LiveIntentliveintent.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Adisnadisn.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| J. Hilburnjhilburn.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Meezmeez.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| H.BLOOMhbloom.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Duettoduettoresearch.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Neocleusneocleus.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Achronix Semiconductorachronix.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| TrialPaytrialpay.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Spot Runnerspotrunner.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Redwood Systemsredwoodsys.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Lotamelotame.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Tracelyticstracelytics.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Lattice Engineslattice-engines.com | 2008 | No | 91 | — |
| Cumulus Networkscumulusnetworks.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Viridity Softwareviriditysoftware.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Vauntevaunte.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Modriamodria.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| HealthCare.comhealthcare.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| SolarBridge Technologiessolarbridgetech.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| TradeKingtradeking.com | 2006 | No | 88 | — |
| WGT Mediawgt.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Sprinklrsprinklr.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Anobit Technologiesanobit.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Purswaypursway.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| JOORjooraccess.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| SumAllsumall.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Enteloentelo.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Donnerwood Mediadonnerwood.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Agito Networksagitonetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| HotelTonighthoteltonight.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Send the Trendsendthetrend.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| FirstFuel Softwarefirstfuel.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Supernovasupernova.io | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| ActivePathactivepath.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Vertical Circuitsverticalcircuits.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| SingleHopsinglehop.com | 2012 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Loosecubesloosecubes.com | 2010 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Weddington Wayweddingtonway.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Optichronoptichron.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Wayfairwayfair.com | 2011 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Smooth-Stonesmooth-stone.com | 2010 | Yes | 54 | — |
| PrimeRevenueprimerevenue.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Sprigsprig.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| BladeLogicbladelogic.com | 2003 | Yes | 53 | — |
| MoreMagic Solutionsmoremagic.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| Taggle Internet Ventures Privatetaggle.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| Ruckusruckusnetwork.com | 2004 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Veraz Networksveraznetworks.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Stonybrook Purificationstonybrookpure.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Primary Dataprimarydata.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Xenex Disinfection Servicesxenex.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Qterosqteros.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Blockboardblockboard.org | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Applimationapplimation.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Polarpolarfi.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Tejas Networks Indiatejasnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| SenSagesensage.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Drillinginfodrillinginfo.com | 2012 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Fresh Dishfreshdish.com | 2012 | No | 28 | — |
| Wiketswikets.com | 2011 | No | 27 | — |
| Luminus Devicesluminus.com | 2006 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Happy Bits Companyhappybits.co | 2012 | No | 26 | — |
| VSS Monitoringvssmonitoring.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| Synaptic Digitalsynapticdigital.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Blue Flame Data | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Mformation Technologiesmformation.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Zayozayo.com | 2007 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Pocket Communications Northeastpocket.com | 2008 | Yes | 9 | — |
| ITA Softwareitasoftware.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Yubyub.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Q2ebankingq2ebanking.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| FTBproftbpro.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Cedar Point Communicationscedarpointcom.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Broadbus Technologiesbroadbus.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Leoleo.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Friendsterfriendster.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| GoEurogoeuro.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Korujoinkoru.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Stratoscalestratoscale.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |