Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Bay City Capital vs Kairos
73rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (12 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 50.5%–89.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 85th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.0 pp
75.0% on 16 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
+23.3 pp
76.9% on 13 deals vs 53.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.1 pp
76.9% on 13 deals vs 68.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.9 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 64.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 13 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (4 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 11.7%–54.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.4 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SynGensyngeninc.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Epizymeepizyme.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| BrainCellsbraincellsinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Nevronevro.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| CymaBay Therapeuticscymabay.com | 2003 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Sunesis Pharmaceuticalssunesis.com | 2009 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Presidio Pharmaceuticalspresidiopharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Vivaldi Biosciencesvivaldibiosciences.com | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Aragon Surgicalaragonsurgical.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| VIA Pharmaceuticalsviapharmaceuticals.com | 2009 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Merusmerus.nl | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Altheosaltheos.net | 2010 | Yes | 53 | — |
| MAP Pharmaceuticalsmappharma.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| PharmAkea Therapeuticspharmakea.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Phenomixphenomixcorp.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| PTC Therapeuticsptcbio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Epocratesepocrates.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |