Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Bay Partners vs Kairos
85th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (28 of 40 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.6%–81.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 79th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.6 pp
70.0% on 40 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
+19.0 pp
71.1% on 38 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.6 pp
71.1% on 38 deals vs 66.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.0 pp
70.6% on 34 deals vs 65.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 38 of 40 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
38
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (15 of 40). 95% Wilson interval 24.2%–53.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+23.5 pp
37.5% on 40 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
40 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xactly Corpxactlycorp.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Envia Systemsenviasystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Jambooljambool.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ParAccelparaccel.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Enphase Energyenphaseenergy.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Akros Siliconakrossilicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| TrueDemand Softwaretdemand.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Plastic Jungleplasticjungle.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Apigeeapigee.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Applied Identityappliedidentity.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| PWRFpulsewaverf.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Montalvo Systems | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| FantasyBookfantasybookinc.com | 2007 | No | 73 | — |
| Advanced Power Projectsadvancedpowerprojects.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| Cswitchcswitch.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| Sana Securitysanasecurity.com | 2004 | No | 66 | — |
| SpringSourcespringsource.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| M-Factorm-factor.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Capella Photonicscapellainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Code Green Networkscodegreennetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Corefinocorefino.com | 2008 | No | 60 | — |
| Zenprisezenprise.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Eloquaeloqua.com | 2006 | Yes | 57 | — |
| WhereNetwherenet.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Zingdom Communications | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| OjOs.comojos.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| NanoGramnanogram.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Exerosexeros.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| Cornerstone OnDemandcornerstoneondemand.com | 2007 | Yes | 37 | — |
| OncoMed Pharmaceuticalsoncomed.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Staccato Communicationsstaccatocommunications.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Ensendaensenda.com | 2008 | Yes | 30 | — |
| g2Oneg2one.com | 2007 | No | 20 | — |
| Like.comlike.com | 2005 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Veebeamveebeam.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| BoardVantageboardvantage.com | 2004 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipmentamec-inc.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Interact Public Safetyinteract911.com | 2008 | Yes | 0 | — |
| Tealeaftealeaf.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| SilverStorm Technologies | 2002 | No | — | — |