Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BayTech Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.3% (7 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.0%–80.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.0 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
+7.6 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.5 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.5 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 66.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 10 of 12 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.1% (1 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 1.6%–37.7%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.2 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-Xchangeopen-xchange.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| RealMatchrealmatch.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Liquid Air Labspodtronic.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| smartfundit.comsmartfundit.com | 2008 | No | 72 | — |
| Ads Clickads-click.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Open-Plugopenplug.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| ChipVision Designchipvision.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| IntegraGenintegragen.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| abaXX Technology | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| QuesComquescom.com | 2010 | No | 21 | — |
| PIERIS Proteolabpieris-ag.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| EnOceanenocean.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |