Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BB Biotech Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+18.2 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.8 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 69.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.2 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 59.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tioga Pharmaceuticalstiogapharma.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Palyon Medicalpalyonmedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Atlas Geneticsatlasgenetics.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Radius Healthradiuspharm.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Probiodrugprobiodrug.de | 2009 | Yes | 42 | — |
| BioVascularbiovascularinc.com | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| Molecular Partnersmolecularpartners.com | 2007 | Yes | 23 | — |