Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BDC Venture Capital vs Kairos
67th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.1% (44 of 72 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.6%–71.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 60th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.7 pp
61.1% on 72 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
+5.2 pp
60.6% on 71 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.2 pp
60.6% on 71 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.5 pp
59.1% on 66 deals vs 70.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 71 of 72 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
68
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 21.7% (13 of 60). 95% Wilson interval 13.1%–33.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.4 pp
21.7% on 60 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
72 labeled follow-on deals, 6 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| NewStep Networks | 2003 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Liquid Computingliquidcomputing.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Elliptic Technologieselliptictech.com | 2005 | No | 95 | — |
| EQOeqo.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Inimex Pharmaceuticalsinimexpharma.com | 2004 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| Salesforce Radian6radian6.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Optosecurityoptosecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Gridpoint Systemsgridpointsystems.com | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| Third Brigadethirdbrigade.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Execution Labsexecutionlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Bluestreak Technologybluestreaktech.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Sirific Wirelesssirific.com | 2004 | Yes | 85 | — |
| OneChip Photonicsonechipphotonics.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Vantrixvantrix.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Datacraticdatacratic.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Diablo Technologiesdiablo-technologies.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| Metconnex | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| GridPointgridpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Natrix Separationsnatrixseparations.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Q1 Labsq1labs.com | 2003 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Planning Mediaplanningmedia.ca | 2010 | No | 76 | — |
| LemonStand.lemonstand.com | 2012 | No | 73 | — |
| eBillmeebillme.com | 2006 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Newtopianewtopia.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Neuralitic Systemsneuralitic.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Granifygranify.com | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| CELLFORcellfor.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Natural Convergencenaturalconvergence.com | 2004 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Opalis Softwareopalis.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| SWITCH Materialsswitchmaterials.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| RapidMindrapidmind.net | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Double-Take Software Canadatimespring.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Extreme Startupsextremestartups.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Layer 7 Technologieslayer7.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Osprey Pharmaceuticals USAospreypharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Leap Medical | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| LeddarTechleddartech.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Coreworxcoreworx.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| MOJIOmoj.io | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| AnyWare Groupanywaregroup.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| Blueprint Software Systemsblueprintsys.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| NewPace Technology Developmentnewpace.com | 2011 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Viron Therapeuticsvironinc.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Alethia BioTherapeuticsalethiabio.com | 2010 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Hexago | 2006 | No | 48 | — |
| Avokia | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Triacta Power Technologiestriacta.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Microbridge Technologies Canadambridgetech.com | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| TUC Managed IT Solutions Ltd.tucmanaged.com | 2010 | No | 46 | — |
| Auvik Networks Inc.auvik.com | 2013 | No | 45 | — |
| Allostera Pharmaallostera.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| Vizimaxvizimax.com | 2012 | No | 37 | — |
| AngioChemangiochem.com | 2005 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Vapremavaperma.com | 2007 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Kleerkleer.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| D-Wave Systemsdwavesys.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Solido Design Automationsolidodesign.com | 2006 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Sofea | 2007 | No | 27 | — |
| Sutussutus.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Privacy Analyticsprivacyanalytics.ca | 2012 | Yes | 21 | — |
| MODASolutions Corporation | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Protiva Biotherapeuticsprotivabio.com | 2006 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Prognomixprognomix.com | 2007 | No | 17 | — |
| Galazargalazar.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| SiGe Semiconductorsige.com | 2005 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Group IV Semiconductorgroupivsemi.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| iWeb Technologiesiweb.com | 2006 | Yes | 12 | — |
| BrandProjectbrandproject.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Analyze Reanalyzere.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| TandemLaunchtandemlaunch.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Diaphonics | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| viDA Therapeuticsvidatherapeutics.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Listnlistn.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Tapstreamtapstream.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Openeraopenera.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| AFORE Solutionsaforesolutions.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ooomfooomf.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |