Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ben Franklin Technology Partners of Northeast Pennsylvania vs Kairos
1st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 12.5% (3 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–31.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 5th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-32.0 pp
12.5% on 24 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
-42.1 pp
12.5% on 24 deals vs 54.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-57.3 pp
12.5% on 24 deals vs 69.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-50.8 pp
12.5% on 24 deals vs 63.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (3 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 5.0%–34.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.3 pp
14.3% on 21 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayParade Picturespayparade.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| eVendor Checkevendorcheck.com | 2008 | No | 69 | — |
| BitLeapbitleap.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| Stykystyky.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| RCD Technologyrcdtechnology.com | 2006 | No | 55 | — |
| Advanced-Tecadvancedtecmaterials.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| CrimeWatch UScrimewatchus.com | 2012 | No | 52 | — |
| Lazarus Therapeuticslazarustherapeutics.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| GrantAdlergrantadler.com | 2009 | No | 47 | — |
| Penn Truss Systems | 2009 | No | 45 | — |
| Live On The Goliveonthego.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| TotalTakeouttotaltakeout.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Viddlerviddler.com | 2010 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Achieve Xachievenext.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| hField Technologieshfield.com | 2009 | No | 36 | — |
| Healthy Humanshealthyhumans.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| ClydeTec Systems | 2010 | No | 33 | — |
| Store Eyesstoreeyes.com | 2009 | No | 33 | — |
| Discovery Machine, Inc.discoverymachine.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Rant Networkrantnetwork.com | 2009 | No | 32 | — |
| Element IDelement-id.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| Ciclon Semiconductor Device Corporationciclonsemi.com | 2005 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Applied Computational Technologiesappcomptech.com | 2006 | No | 13 | — |
| Hot Mix Mobile | 2012 | No | 11 | — |
| EthosGenethosgen.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Map Decisionsmapdecisions.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |