Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ben Franklin Technology Partners of Southeastern Pennsylvania vs Kairos
14th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (6 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 19.8%–64.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 22nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.9 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
-16.9 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 56.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-31.6 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 71.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.5 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 75.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.9 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 11.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relmada Therapeuticsrelmada.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Larger Than Life Printsltlprints.com | 2009 | No | 87 | — |
| SnipSnapsnipsnap.it | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Holganixholganix.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Tadpolestadpoles.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| OneTwoSeeonetwosee.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Asset Vue LLC.assetvue.net | 2011 | No | 59 | — |
| Zagsterzagster.com | 2010 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Stabiliz Orthopaedicsstabilizorthopaedics.com | 2012 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Spectrum Devicesspectrumdevices.com | 2010 | No | 38 | — |
| S4 Worldwides4worldwide.com | 2012 | No | 34 | — |
| American Hometecamericanhometec.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Burst Online Entertainmentplayonburst.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Real Time Tomographyrealtimetomography.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |
| Novetas Solutionsnewageblastmedia.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |