Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Benhamou Global Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-42.4 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-51.9 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 51.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-67.9 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-60.7 pp
0.0% on 5 deals vs 60.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
86
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.8 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 12.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobissimomobissimo.com | 2004 | No | 96 | Yes |
| PureWave Networkspwnets.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| ConteXtreamcontextream.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Dasientdasient.com | 2009 | No | 84 | — |
| OurStoryourstory.com | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| Particle Codeparticlecode.com | 2010 | No | 75 | — |
| SwiftTestswifttest.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |