Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Beringea Private Equity vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-19.8 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-30.8 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 55.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-46.5 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-42.7 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 67.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.3 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GetBackgetback.com | 2008 | No | 73 | — |
| gloStreamglostream.com | 2009 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Eagle-i Musiceagle-imusic.com | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| Community Pharmacycommunitypharmacy.com | 2011 | No | 51 | — |
| BlisMediablismedia.com | 2007 | No | 48 | — |
| Altacoraltacoreyeproducts.co.uk | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| MatsSoftmatssoft.co.uk | 2011 | No | 33 | — |
| Breeze Techbreeze-tech.co.uk | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| SenseLogixsenselogix.com | 2010 | Yes | 24 | — |
| InSkin Mediainskinmedia.com | 2012 | No | 23 | — |
| Relume Technologiesrelume.com | 2009 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Magiqmagiq.com | 2010 | No | 14 | — |
| Freeosk Incthefreeosk.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Skills Matterskillsmatter.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |