Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Bessemer Venture Partners vs Kairos
97th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.7% (53 of 70 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.5%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 85th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.8 pp
75.7% on 70 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
+20.1 pp
75.8% on 66 deals vs 55.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.3 pp
75.8% on 66 deals vs 70.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.5 pp
77.4% on 62 deals vs 67.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 66 of 70 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
62
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (18 of 60). 95% Wilson interval 19.9%–42.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.6 pp
30.0% on 60 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
70 labeled follow-on deals, 8 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SweetLabssweetlabs.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Twiliotwilio.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| BillGuardbillguard.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Wizewize.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Convertroconvertro.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| BillShrinkbillshrink.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Tileratilera.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Revverrevver.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Britelybritely.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Smulesmule.com | 2008 | Yes | 93 | — |
| LifeLocklifelock.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Ravello Systemsravellosystems.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Alcrestaalcresta.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Axis Network Technologyaxisnt.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| Allena Pharmaceuticalsallenapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Grow Mobilegrowmobile.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| OneStoponestop.so | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Procured Healthprocuredhealth.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| StreamBase Systemsstreambase.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| AccessSportsMedia.comaccesssportsmedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Millennial Mediamillennialmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Netli | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| On-Q-ityon-q-ity.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Yodleyodle.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Wixwix.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Flockflock.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Vasona Networksvasonanetworks.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| OLXolx.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Elemental Cyber Securityelementalsecurity.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Netuitivenetuitive.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Verastemverastem.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Alnara Pharmaceuticalsalnara.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Supernovasupernova.io | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| BA Systemsba-sys.com | 2007 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Pinnacle Enginespinnacle-engines.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Simply Measuredsimplymeasured.com | 2010 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Vertica Systemsvertica.com | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Oxagenoxagen.co.uk | 2009 | No | 66 | — |
| Endgameendgame.com | 2010 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Koviokovio.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| DGP Labsdgplabs.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| BladeLogicbladelogic.com | 2003 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Summit Microelectronicssummitmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Mangrove Systemsmangrovesystems.com | 2003 | No | 50 | — |
| GoTV Networksphunware.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| AccuVeinaccuvein.com | 2011 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Avneraavnera.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Offermaticoffermatic.com | 2010 | Yes | 42 | — |
| PA Semi | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| SelectMindsselectminds.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| CPowercpowered.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Shopifyshopify.com | 2010 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Cornerstone OnDemandcornerstoneondemand.com | 2007 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Intiguaintigua.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| ACTIV Financial Systemsactivfinancial.com | 2010 | No | 33 | — |
| Hands-On Mobilehandson.com | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| kajeetkajeet.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Parallelsparallels.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| Taquataqua.com | 2003 | No | 28 | — |
| Revivio | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Orient Green Powerorientgreenpower.com | 2008 | No | 23 | — |
| Blue Nilebluenile.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Boxedboxed.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Endecaendeca.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| IIDinternetidentity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ReefEdgereefedge.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Blue Apronblueapron.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| United Capitalunitedcp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Mind Pirate, Inc.mindpirate.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BroadSoftbroadsoft.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Mojave Networksmojave.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Anunta Technology Management Servicesanuntatech.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Defense.Netdefense.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Nitrousnitrous.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Cloudius Systemsi-cloudius.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ThreatTrack Securitythreattracksecurity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Stratoscalestratoscale.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |