Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Blue Chip Venture Company vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.5 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
+16.4 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 53.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.5 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 68.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.6 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 62.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.0 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactivtransactiv.com | 2009 | No | 92 | — |
| Scale Computingscalecomputing.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| ShareThissharethis.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Third Screen Mediathirdscreenmedia.com | 2005 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Endocyteendocyte.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Union Spring Pharmaceuticalsunionspringspharmaceuticals.com | 2009 | No | 48 | — |
| Aprimoaprimo.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| JackBejackbe.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| [x+1]xplusone.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| NineSigmaninesigma.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |