Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BlueRun Ventures vs Kairos
54th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.8% (20 of 34 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.2%–73.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 57th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.9 pp
58.8% on 34 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+4.8 pp
57.6% on 33 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.6 pp
57.6% on 33 deals vs 68.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.4 pp
57.6% on 33 deals vs 63.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 33 of 34 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (6 of 33). 95% Wilson interval 8.6%–34.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.8 pp
18.2% on 33 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
34 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140 Proof140proof.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Radiusradius.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Ugenie | 2006 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Availinkavailink.com.cn | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| 3i Systems3i-systems.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Zmandazmanda.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Coupa Softwarecoupa.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| bTendobtendo.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Wazewaze.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Vusionvusion.com | 2008 | No | 94 | — |
| OpenBuildingsopenbuildings.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Volleevollee.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Netli | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Hollywood Interactive Groupmyhollywood.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| AppRedeemappredeem.com | 2011 | No | 83 | — |
| Innofideiinnofidei.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Atrua Technologiesatrua.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| FusionOnefusionone.com | 2008 | No | 70 | — |
| Muzicallmuzicall.com | 2009 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Apogee Photonics | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| NexPlanarnexplanar.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| FreedomPayfreedompay.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Beijing Feixiangren Information Technologyganji.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| OjOs.comojos.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Deeya Energydeeyaenergy.com | 2006 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Varoliivarolii.com | 2011 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Frontier Siliconfrontier-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 37 | — |
| SiliconBlue Technologiessiliconbluetech.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| C3L3B Digitalc3l3b.com | 2008 | No | 29 | — |
| Hyperpia | 2007 | No | 28 | — |
| Hi-Dis(Mosen) | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| sliceXslicex.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Like.comlike.com | 2005 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Location Labslocationlabs.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |