Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BlueStream Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.3 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 41.7%
Vs median VC book
-7.7 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.7 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 65.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-42.9 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 71.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 9 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (3 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 10.8%–60.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.0 pp
30.0% on 10 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akorri Networksakorri.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| PANTA Systemspantasys.com | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| Meru Networksmerunetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| TAZZ Networks | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| Gearworksgearworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Calabriocalabrio.com | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| Spanlink Communicationsspanlink.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Ounce Labsouncelabs.com | 2004 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Surgientsurgient.com | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| Fieldglassfieldglass.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |