Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Blumberg Capital vs Kairos
77th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 82.4% (14 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.0%–93.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 87th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+33.5 pp
82.4% on 17 deals vs 48.9%
Vs median VC book
+19.3 pp
82.4% on 17 deals vs 63.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.5 pp
82.4% on 17 deals vs 77.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.2 pp
82.4% on 17 deals vs 71.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
80
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+26.0 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 11.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DoubleVerifydoubleverify.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| isocketisocket.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| LiquidMliquidm.com | 2013 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Hootsuitehootsuite.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Any.DOany.do | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Merchant Atlasmerchantatlas.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Lenddolenddo.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| 1-Page1-page.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Nolionoliosoft.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| LiteScape Technologieslitescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Mom Trustedmomtrusted.com | 2012 | No | 65 | — |
| Moment.memoment.me | 2012 | Yes | 65 | — |
| The Fab Shoesthefabshoes.com | 2012 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Credoraxcredorax.com | 2011 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Ellieellie.com | 2013 | No | 48 | — |
| Wummelboxwummelbox.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| FeeXfeex.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ePetWorld | 2013 | Yes | — | — |