Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Blume Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.3% (7 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.0%–80.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.1 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 50.3%
Vs median VC book
-7.5 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 65.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.7 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 80.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.4 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 76.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
45
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auralityaurality.net | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| unamiaunamia.com | 2012 | No | 80 | — |
| TaxiForSure.comtaxiforsure.com | 2012 | Yes | 58 | — |
| MadRat Gamesmadratgames.com | 2012 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Hotelogixhotelogix.com | 2012 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Exotelexotel.in | 2012 | No | 25 | — |
| Rolocule Gamesrolocule.com | 2012 | No | 22 | — |
| DoCircuitsdocircuits.com | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| VoxPop Clothingvoxpopclothing.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| WeAreHolidaysweareholidays.co.in | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Kulizakuliza.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Purpllepurplle.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Bedbathmore.combedbathmore.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Explaraexplara.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| voxappvoxapp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |