Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Boldstart Ventures vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.3%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+8.9 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 48.3%

Vs median VC book

-7.0 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 64.2%

Vs top-quartile VC

-22.9 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 80.0%

Vs Y Combinator

-13.8 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 71.0%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

11/1 followed on

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Dividedivide.com	2010	Yes	99	Yes
Coherent Pathcoherentpath.com	2013	Yes	97	—
DoodleDeals Inc.doodledeals.com	2010	No	92	—
GoInstantgoinstant.com	2011	No	89	—
Plain Vanillaquizup.com	2012	Yes	85	—
Indiegogoindiegogo.com	2008	No	82	—
Yhatyhat.com	2013	Yes	45	—
Handshakehandshake-app.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—