Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Borealis Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.9% (10 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 62.3%–98.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+48.5 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
+37.7 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 53.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+23.4 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+20.5 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 69.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.0 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceClaimspaceclaim.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Flurryflurry.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Winguwingu.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Makeover Solutionsmakeoversolutions.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Newformanewforma.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Vets First Choicevetsfirstchoice.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Handmarkhandmark.com | 2005 | Yes | 57 | — |
| enVistaenvistacorp.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| FetchDogfetchdog.com | 2009 | Yes | 43 | — |
| PCD Partnerspcdpartners.com | 2011 | No | 39 | — |
| Medical Metrx Solutionsmedicalmetrix.com | 2003 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Airstoneairstone.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |