Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Boston Seed Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 50.6%
Vs median VC book
-17.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 67.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-31.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 81.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 75.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Directrdirectr.co | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Jebbitjebbit.com | 2013 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Soldusesold.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Blaze.ioblaze.io | 2010 | No | 81 | — |
| clypdclypd.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| FX Alignedfxaligned.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Openbayopenbay.com | 2013 | No | 59 | — |
| TrueLenstruelens.com | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| Bluetrain.iobluetrain.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |