Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Boulder Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (10 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 55.2%–95.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+41.2 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
+32.0 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 49.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+16.1 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 65.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+16.9 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 63.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 11 of 12 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–24.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.2 pp
0.0% on 12 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiOptix Inc.bioptixinc.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Market Force Informationmarketforce.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Zenosszenoss.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Datavaildatavail.com | 2008 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Estorian | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| BaroFoldbarofold.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Miragen Therapeuticsmiragentherapeutics.com | 2008 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Rally Softwarerallydev.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| XIFINxifin.com | 2006 | No | 45 | — |
| Bluesocketbluesocket.com | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| ProStor Systemsprostorsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Lefthand Networkslefthandnetworks.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |