Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Braemar Energy Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.1 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+11.3 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 58.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.6 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 73.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 70.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.1 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stionstion.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Sefairasefaira.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Viridity Energyviridityenergy.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Ciris Energycirisenergy.com | 2010 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Enerkemenerkem.com | 2007 | Yes | 47 | — |
| NexSteppenexsteppe.com | 2011 | Yes | 42 | — |
| EnerNOCenernoc.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| Alediaaledia.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Utilidatautilidata.com | 2012 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Fulhamfulham.com | 2009 | No | 28 | — |