Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
b-to-v Partners AG vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.6 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-6.0 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.3 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 71.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.1 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 62.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.7 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cellitycellity.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| HengZhihengzhi.cc | 2010 | No | 86 | — |
| Tokiva Technologiestokiva.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| Quanta Fluid Solutionsquantafs.com | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| XINGxing.com | 2004 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Plazesplazes.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Coguan Groupcoguan.com | 2009 | No | 48 | — |
| gBox | 2008 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Qypeqype.co.uk | 2005 | Yes | 44 | — |
| WISE s.r.lwisebiotech.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Luxodoluxodo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |