Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
BRM Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+34.0 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
+23.7 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+9.9 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.3 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 71.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.8 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 15.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pudding Mediapuddingmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Altair Semiconductoraltair-semi.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Moovitmoovitapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| SupportSpacesupportspace.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Pando Networkspandonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Everything.mecorp.everything.me | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| GigaSpacesgigaspaces.com | 2005 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Fraud Sciencesfraudsciences.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Glycomindsglycominds.com | 2005 | No | 16 | — |
| V Wave | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |