Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Brook Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.9 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-15.6 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-30.2 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 64.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.0 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arigoarigo.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| Babyagebabyage.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Wandrianwandrian.com | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| Security Innovationsecurityinnovation.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| RSI Content Solutions.rsuitecms.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Anodyne Healthanodynehealth.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| Bioscanbioscan.com | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| Daybreak Intellectual Capital Solutions | 2010 | No | 21 | — |