Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Business Growth Fund vs Kairos
3rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 12.5% (2 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.5%–36.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 4th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-34.9 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 47.4%
Vs median VC book
-46.3 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 58.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-59.5 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 72.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-67.5 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 80.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
20
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 11 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyDoxskydox.com | 2012 | No | 71 | — |
| broadbandchoicesbroadbandchoices.co.uk | 2012 | No | 23 | — |
| Shuropodyshuropody.com | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Cennoxcennoxplc.com | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Springfield Healthcarespringfieldhealthcaregroup.com | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Wow! Stuffwowstuff.co.uk | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| M Squared Lasersm2lasers.com | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Benefex Groupbenefex.co.uk | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| STATS Groupstatsgroup.com | 2012 | No | 17 | — |
| GCI Comgcicom.net | 2012 | No | 17 | — |
| Barburritobarburrito.co.uk | 2012 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Wear Innswearinns.co.uk | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| Statesman Travel Groupstatesmantravel.com | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| Swanbridge Hire and Sales | 2012 | No | 10 | — |
| AFG Media | 2012 | No | 9 | — |
| York Mailingyorkmailing.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Bullitt Groupbullitt-group.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| VTL Groupvtl-group.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Xercise4lessxercise4less.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| PTS Consultingptsconsulting.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Inoappsinoapps.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| DUNCAN & Toddduncanandtodd.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Abacus e-Mediaabacusemedia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Petrotechnicspetrotechnics.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Celatoncelaton.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Magma Globalmagmaglobal.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sub10 Systemssub10systems.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |