Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Cabiedes & Partners vs Kairos
34th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.9% (11 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.3%–76.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 47th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.4 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
-3.9 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 61.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-19.8 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 77.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.7 pp
57.9% on 19 deals vs 75.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.2 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBA and Companymbaco.com | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| GIGASgigas.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Ducksboardducksboard.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Uvinumuvinum.com | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Ulaboxulabox.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Offerumofferum.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Zyncrozyncro.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Deporvillagedeporvillage.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| BlaBlaCarblablacar.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Nonaboxnonabox.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| StopandWalk.comstopandwalk.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| Deskideadeskidea.com | 2012 | No | 57 | — |
| Club Santa Monicaclubsantamonica.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| Tiendeotiendeo.com | 2011 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Rockola Media Grouprockola.fm | 2010 | No | 41 | — |
| paraBebes.comparabebes.com | 2010 | No | 18 | — |
| We Are Knittersweareknitters.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Percentilpercentil.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ByHours.combyhours.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Funideliafunidelia.es | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ClinicPointclinicpoint.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |