Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Caixa Capital Risc vs Kairos
6th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 29.2% (7 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 14.9%–49.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 13th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.9 pp
29.2% on 24 deals vs 46.1%
Vs median VC book
-30.0 pp
29.2% on 24 deals vs 59.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-45.9 pp
29.2% on 24 deals vs 75.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-41.4 pp
29.2% on 24 deals vs 70.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
34
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.1 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 12.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 8 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trovittrovit.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| AddFleetaddfleet.com | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Virtualtwovirtualtwo.com | 2011 | No | 62 | — |
| Medlumicsmedlumics.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Sagetis Biotechsagetis-biotech.com | 2011 | No | 57 | — |
| EscapadaRural, Servicios para propietariosescapadarural.com | 2008 | No | 44 | — |
| Minoryx Therapeuticsminoryx.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Genasysgenasys.com | 2009 | No | 28 | — |
| Genmedica Therapeuticsgenmedica.com | 2011 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Ingeniatricsingeniatrics.com | 2011 | No | 28 | — |
| Enefgyenefgy.com | 2010 | No | 27 | — |
| nLife Therapeutics | 2012 | Yes | 26 | — |
| e-contratose-contratos.com | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| Iris Experienceirisexperience.com | 2008 | Yes | 25 | — |
| luciernalucierna.com | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Sabirmedicalsabirmedical.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| Aplicaaplicatec.com | 2007 | No | 25 | — |
| vLexvlex.com | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Good Dealgooddeal.es | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| i-Neumaticosi-neumaticos.es | 2011 | No | 12 | — |
| Tu Otro Supertuotrosuper.com | 2012 | No | 11 | — |
| The Etailerstheetailers.com | 2012 | No | 7 | — |
| Fast Drinksfastdrinks2go.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Signadynesignadyne.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Forest Chemical Groupforestchemicalgroup.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PEVESApevesa.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| From The Benchfromthebenchgames.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Icineticicinetic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Social & Loyalsocialandloyal.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ByHours.combyhours.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| BidAwaybidaway.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| iMICROQimicroq.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |