Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Canaan Partners vs Kairos
59th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.2% (39 of 67 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.3%–69.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 54th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.6 pp
58.2% on 67 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+5.2 pp
59.4% on 64 deals vs 54.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.3 pp
59.4% on 64 deals vs 68.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.2 pp
59.6% on 57 deals vs 70.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 64 of 67 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
62
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
44/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.9% (14 of 54). 95% Wilson interval 16.1%–38.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.2 pp
25.9% on 54 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
67 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOASTAsoasta.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Blurbblurb.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| OpenSkyopensky.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Kabamkabam.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| TweetPhototweetphoto.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Virsto Softwarevirsto.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Zmandazmanda.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Plixiplixi.com | 2010 | No | 96 | — |
| Vivoxvivox.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Advanced BioHealingabh.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Loyalty Labloyaltylab.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Gemvaragemvara.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Motionboxmotionbox.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Elevation Pharmaceuticalselevationpharma.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| CompanyLoopcompanyloop.com | 2007 | No | 85 | — |
| Viewbixviewbix.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Vidientvidient.com | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| EnStorageenstorageinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Relievant Medsystemsrelievant.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Blackfootblackfoot.com | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| GroundWorkgwos.com | 2004 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Mature Women's Health Solutions | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| Civitas Therapeuticscivitastherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 76 | — |
| iYogiiyogi.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Cuyanacuyana.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| PicksPalpickspal.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| LiveUliveu.tv | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| MotorExchangemotorexchange.in | 2009 | No | 73 | — |
| Theraclone Sciencestheraclone-sciences.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Adlyfeadlyfe.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Inhale Digitalinhaledigital.com | 2010 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Habeas | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| Mobilitec | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| BiPar Sciencesbiparsciences.com | 2004 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Echopass Corporationgenesys.com | 2003 | No | 55 | — |
| Calibra Medical | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| AdverCaradvercar.com | 2012 | No | 53 | — |
| Altheosaltheos.net | 2010 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Labrys Biologics | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| Happiest Minds Technolgoieshappiestminds.com | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| Coapt Systemscoaptsystems.com | 2003 | No | 45 | — |
| Novare Surgicalnovaresurgical.com | 2006 | No | 41 | — |
| CoAxiacoaxia.com | 2006 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Naaptolnaaptol.com | 2010 | Yes | 31 | — |
| SenSagesensage.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Gemvara.comgemvara.com | 2008 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Enpirionenpirion.com | 2004 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Vue Technologyvuetechnology.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| NeedFeedneedfeed.com | 2012 | No | 25 | — |
| Matrimony.commatrimony.com | 2006 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Tobira Therapeuticstobiratherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| CallmyNamecallmyname.com | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| Performance Marketing Brands, Inc.performancemarketingbrands.com | 2012 | No | 12 | — |
| Everdreameverdream.com | 2003 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Zolo Technologieszolotech.com | 2005 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Loylty Rewardz Managementloylty.com | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| Visiprisevisiprise.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| Chakpak Mediachakpak.com | 2008 | No | 8 | — |
| ON24on24.com | 2004 | No | 7 | — |
| Bharat Matrimonybharatmatrimony.com | 2008 | No | 7 | — |
| MWHS | 2012 | No | 6 | — |
| Tacit Networks | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Stayfulstayful.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ID Analyticsidanalytics.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| itBititbit.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Research Triangle Park (RTP)rtp.org | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| India Property Onlineindiaproperty.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Viacorviacorinc.com | 2002 | No | — | — |