Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Capital Factory vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-2.2 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 47.7%
Vs median VC book
-15.0 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 60.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-30.3 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 75.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-22.3 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 67.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.2 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 10.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RecycleMatchrecyclematch.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Hurricane Partyhurricaneparty.com | 2010 | No | 93 | — |
| OutboundEngineoutboundengine.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Keepstreamkeepstream.com | 2010 | No | 86 | — |
| RippleFunctionripplefunction.com | 2010 | No | 86 | — |
| HourVillehourville.com | 2009 | No | 79 | — |
| PetMDpetmd.com | 2009 | No | 77 | — |
| SpareFootsparefoot.com | 2009 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Famigofamigo.com | 2009 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Postmasterpostmaster.io | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Smackagessmackages.com | 2010 | No | 29 | — |