Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Capital Innovators vs Kairos
97th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (17 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 81.6%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 98th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+50.5 pp
100.0% on 17 deals vs 49.5%
Vs median VC book
+35.2 pp
100.0% on 17 deals vs 64.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+19.9 pp
100.0% on 17 deals vs 80.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+23.9 pp
100.0% on 17 deals vs 76.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| adFreeqadfreeq.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Material Mixmaterialmix.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Gainsightgainsight.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Recursive Labsrecursivelabs.io | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Hatchbuckhatchbuck.com | 2012 | Yes | 70 | — |
| The Sea Apptheseaapp.com | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| BusyEventbusyevent.com | 2012 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Tunespeaktunespeak.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Bonfyrebonfyreapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Norsenorse-corp.com | 2011 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Gremlngremln.com | 2011 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Action Online Publishingfigures.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| HealthyMe Mobile Solutionshealthymehub.com | 2013 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Symvatosymvato.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Dead Inventory Management Systemdeadinventorymanagement.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BidRazorbidrazor.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| TrakBilltrakbill.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Time To Catertimetocater.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| IDC Projectsidcprojects.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Juristatjuristat.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |