Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Carmel Ventures vs Kairos
50th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.4% (22 of 39 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 41.0%–70.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 52nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.3 pp
56.4% on 39 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
+1.6 pp
55.3% on 38 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.2 pp
55.3% on 38 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.2 pp
51.4% on 35 deals vs 66.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 38 of 39 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
37
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 29.4% (10 of 34). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–46.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.7 pp
29.4% on 34 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
39 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpTieroptier.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Mobicious/SnapMyLifemobicious.com | 2007 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Group Commercegroupcommerce.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Delverdelver.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Octavianoctavian-tech.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Amadesaamadesa.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| SundaySkysundaysky.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| bTendobtendo.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| PicApppicapp.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| Verixverix.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| myThingsmythings.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Tapingotapingo.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| OptimalTestoptimaltest.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Kampylekampyle.com | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| eXelateexelate.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Personetics Technologiespersonetics.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| DesignArt Networksdesignartnetworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Perfecto Mobileperfectomobile.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Samanagesamanage.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| LiveUliveu.tv | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Moblicamoblica.com | 2010 | No | 63 | — |
| Clarizenclarizen.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| C2 Microsystemsc2micro.com | 2009 | No | 55 | — |
| C-narioc-nario.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| MultiPhymulti-phy.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| Impress Software Solutions | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Whole Opticswhole-optics.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Red Bend Softwareredbend.com | 2004 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Skybox Securityskyboxsecurity.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Snaptusnaptu.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| CopperGate Communicationscopper-gate.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Ethos Networksethos-networks.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Enure Networksenure.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Mformation Technologiesmformation.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Metis Technologiesmetistec.com | 2008 | No | 11 | — |
| Followapfollowap.com | 2005 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Axerra Networksaxerra.com | 2005 | Yes | 4 | — |
| CoolaDatacooladata.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Proficiencyproficiency.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |