Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Castile Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-19.9 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
-42.2 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 56.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-54.8 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-58.6 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 72.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 7 of 8 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.5 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InboundWriterinboundwriter.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| Network Intelligence | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| Trapeze Networkstrapezenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 63 | — |
| NetDevicestvizl.blogspot.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| EXFOexfo.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| PGP TrustCenterpgptrustcenter.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| BNI Videobnivideo.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Ahura Scientificahurascientific.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |