Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Catamount Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.5% (8 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.5%–82.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.9 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 42.7%
Vs median VC book
+8.4 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.2 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.2 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 69.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 8.3% (1 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 1.5%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.9 pp
8.3% on 12 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SignalDemandsignaldemand.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| DriverSidedriverside.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Siterrasiterra.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| Flockflock.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Grid Netgrid-net.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Real Time Genomicsrealtimegenomics.com | 2009 | No | 78 | — |
| Funtigo Corporation | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| JoMaJa | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Bocadabocada.com | 2005 | Yes | 48 | — |
| The Nest Collective | 2011 | No | 48 | — |
| Verdiemverdiem.com | 2005 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Linden Lablindenlab.com | 2004 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Liquid Enginesliquidengines.com | 2004 | Yes | 7 | — |
| Carezone.comcarezone.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |