Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Catapult Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (4 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 11.7%–54.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-15.8 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-27.2 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 55.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-42.8 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.6 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 65.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–25.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.9 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 11.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biofortunabiofortuna.com | 2010 | Yes | 68 | — |
| activ8 Intelligencea8i.co.uk | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| Systems Integrationsiltd.co.uk | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| Probe Scientificprobescientific.com | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| Critical Pharmaceuticalscriticalpharmaceuticals.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Comply Servecomplyserve.com | 2009 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Synchrosynchroltd.com | 2007 | No | 39 | — |
| Silver Lining Solutionssilverliningsolutions.co.uk | 2008 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Intellitect Water Holdingsintellitect-water.co.uk | 2010 | No | 29 | — |
| FDTEKfdtek.co.uk | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| KickSportkicksport.com | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| Hangar Sevenhangarseven.co.uk | 2011 | No | 18 | — |
| Yospace Enterprises | 2010 | No | 18 | — |
| Yospace Technologiesyospace.com | 2010 | No | 14 | — |