Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Catterton Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.1 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 46.9%
Vs median VC book
-9.1 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 59.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.5 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 74.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.3 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 71.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
34
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Nest Collective | 2011 | No | 48 | — |
| NJOYnjoy.com | 2012 | Yes | 43 | — |
| TechTurntechturn.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Protein Bartheproteinbar.com | 2013 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Zeno Corporationmyzeno.com | 2008 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Baccaratbaccarat.com | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| Bruxiebruxie.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CorePower Yogacorepoweryoga.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |