Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Innovation Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 27.3% (3 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–56.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.8 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-26.7 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 54.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-39.6 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-45.2 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 72.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–27.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-15.0 pp
0.0% on 10 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldebaran Roboticsaldebaran.com | 2007 | No | 86 | — |
| cacaoTVcacaotv.com | 2008 | No | 80 | — |
| Iwedia Technologiesiwedia.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Kuros Biosurgerykuros.ch | 2005 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Graitecgraitec.com | 2005 | No | 70 | — |
| Ipracom | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| Wirecom Technologieswirecom-tech.com | 2006 | Yes | 44 | — |
| NEMOPTICnemoptic.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Maeglin Softwaremaeglin.com | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Citilogcitilog.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Novalednovaled.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |