Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Cedar Fund vs Kairos
50th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.5% (16 of 26 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.5%–77.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 56th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.6 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 46.0%
Vs median VC book
+2.9 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 58.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.2 pp
61.5% on 26 deals vs 73.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.6 pp
66.7% on 24 deals vs 68.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.5% (4 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 9.6%–47.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.4 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
26 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pentalum Technologiespentalum.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| ClickFoxclickfox.com | 2004 | No | 91 | — |
| Curiyocuriyo.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Nolionoliosoft.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| CloudLockcloudlock.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| ScaleBasescalebase.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Onaroonaro.com | 2004 | No | 84 | — |
| StartAppstartapp.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| Guardiumguardium.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Datoramadatorama.com | 2013 | Yes | 83 | — |
| personalipersonali.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Amimonamimon.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| PeerApppeerapp.com | 2005 | Yes | 71 | — |
| WebLayersweblayers.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Eglue Business Technologieseglue.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| NewACTnewact.com | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| Wochitwochit.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| WiNetworkswinetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Iamba Networks | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Primary Dataprimarydata.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Intiguaintigua.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Profitectprofitect.com | 2009 | No | 31 | — |
| Webcollagewebcollage.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Siverge Networkssiverge.com | 2006 | No | 20 | — |
| Celtroceltro.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| 365Scoresbiz.365scores.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |