Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Celtic House Venture Partners vs Kairos
65th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.6% (12 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.9%–86.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 78th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.2 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.9 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.8 pp
66.7% on 15 deals vs 64.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 21.4% (3 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 7.6%–47.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.8 pp
21.4% on 14 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overlay.tvoverlay.tv | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Morega Systemsmorega.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Fresco Microchipfrescomicrochip.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Third Brigadethirdbrigade.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Peraso Technologiesperasotech.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Movidiusmovidius.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Sirific Wirelesssirific.com | 2004 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Spectra7 Microsystemsspectra7.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Diablo Technologiesdiablo-technologies.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| eBillmeebillme.com | 2006 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Cavendish Kineticscavendish-kinetics.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| DNA13dna13.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Redmere Technologyredmere.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Global Silicon | 2005 | No | 47 | — |
| Auvik Networks Inc.auvik.com | 2013 | No | 45 | — |
| Tropic Networks | 2003 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Graphite Softwaregraphitesoftware.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Nuvyyotablotv.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Corsa Technologycorsa.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |