Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Centerpoint Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.4 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
-6.3 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.5 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 66.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.7 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 66.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.1% (3 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–50.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.7 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuventixnuventix.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| GlobeRangergloberanger.com | 2009 | No | 84 | — |
| Convey Computerconveycomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Ample Communicationsamplepk.net | 2004 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Quickshift | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| Interactive TKOitko.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Mirage Networksmiragenetworks.com | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| MPVexperian.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Integral Wave Technologies | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| AppTriggerapptrigger.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Handangohandango.com | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| ExteNet Systemsextenetsystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 33 | — |
| T-RAM Semiconductort-ram.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |