Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Chrysalis Ventures vs Kairos
36th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (10 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.7%–75.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 49th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.4 pp
55.6% on 18 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+5.6 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.3 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 68.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.6 pp
62.5% on 16 deals vs 65.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.8% (3 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 6.6%–43.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.7 pp
18.8% on 16 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronicitychronicityinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| StraighterLinestraighterline.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Foundation Radiology Groupfoundationradiologygroup.com | 2009 | Yes | 82 | — |
| NextImage Medicalnextimagemedical.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| meQuilibriummequilibrium.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Cyberacybera.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| RAD Technologies | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Mobile Armormobilearmor.com | 2007 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Connectureconnecture.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Construction Software Technologiesisqft.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| My Health Directmyhealthdirect.com | 2009 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Intechra Holdingsintechra.com | 2005 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Acheive CCAachievecca.com | 2009 | No | 24 | — |
| SinglePipe Communicationssinglepipecom.com | 2009 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Laboratory Partners | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |
| MedServemedserve.com | 2008 | No | 14 | — |
| HealthMediahealthmedia.com | 2003 | No | 12 | — |
| afterBOTafterbot.com | 2001 | No | — | — |