Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Claremont Creek Ventures vs Kairos
74th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 76.5% (13 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.7%–90.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 84th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.6 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+20.0 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 56.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.0 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 72.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.7 pp
76.5% on 17 deals vs 63.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (2 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 4.0%–39.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.2 pp
14.3% on 14 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billeo Inc.billeo.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Alphabet Energyalphabetenergy.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Clean Power Financecleanpowerfinance.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Fluxion Biosciencesfluxionbio.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Adura Technologiesaduratech.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| SmartZipsmartzip.com | 2009 | Yes | 93 | — |
| TargetCast Networkstargetcastnetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| PropertyBridgepropertybridge.com | 2006 | No | 85 | — |
| Sentillasentilla.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| GeneWEAVEgeneweave.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Building Roboticsbuildingrobotics.com | 2013 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Genalytegenalyte.com | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| Arcxis Biotechnologiesarcxis.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Roc2Locroc2loc.com | 2008 | No | 48 | — |
| SST Inc. (Formerly ShotSpotter)shotspotter.com | 2006 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Nateranatera.com | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |
| NuMediinumedii.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |