Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Clarus Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (8 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.0%–94.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+37.2 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+27.4 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+11.4 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 68.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.5 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 64.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+23.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleave Biosciencescleavebio.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| SARcode Biosciencesarcode.com | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Zogenixzogenix.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Sientrasientra.com | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Pearl Therapeuticspearltherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| SFJ Pharmaceuticalssfj-pharma.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| TyRx Pharmatyrx.com | 2010 | No | 55 | — |
| Aerovanceaerovance.com | 2007 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Pelikan Technologiespelikantechnologies.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| ESBATechesbatech.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Avillionavillionllp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |