Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Clearstone Venture Partners vs Kairos
35th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.2% (12 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.0%–70.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 46th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.6 pp
52.2% on 23 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+0.0 pp
52.2% on 23 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.0 pp
52.2% on 23 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-20.4 pp
47.6% on 21 deals vs 68.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.0% (4 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 7.7%–40.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.5 pp
19.0% on 21 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DiVitas Networksclearfly.net | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| LeisureLinkleisurelink.com | 2007 | No | 98 | — |
| Geodelic Systemsgeodelic.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Games2Wingames2win.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Spockspock.com | 2006 | No | 95 | — |
| Rubicon Projectrubiconproject.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Soonrsoonr.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Veodiaveodia.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Syndera Corporationsyndera.com | 2005 | No | 88 | — |
| Prestopresto.com | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| ARIO Data Networksariodata.com | 2004 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Six Degrees Gamessixdegreesgames.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Glossi, Incgo.slipp.it | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| Mimosa Systemsmimosasystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Meru Networksmerunetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| iPolicy Networksipolicynet.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Vastvast.com | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| Communicadocommunicado-inc.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Kazeonkazeon.com | 2005 | Yes | 54 | — |
| AOptix Technologiesaoptix.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Aceva Technologies | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| IndiaIdeasbilldesk.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Novariantnovariant.com | 2005 | No | 6 | — |
| At The Poolatthepool.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |