Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Close Venture Management vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-13.4 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
-22.7 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-38.1 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-32.6 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 61.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.9 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vibrant Energyvibrantenergy.co.uk | 2008 | No | 79 | — |
| Mi-Paymi-pay.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| RFI Global Servicesrfi-global.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Blackbayblackbay.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| Process System Enterprisepsenterprise.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| Xceleron Inc.xceleron.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Opta Sportsdataoptasportsdata.com | 2008 | No | 29 | — |